Inductive Arguments: Strong Forms

Argument Construct Overview
Enumeration A particular F is G.
Another F is G.
Yet another F is G.
(and so on)
∴ Every F is G.
This is an example of generalizing from particular cases to obtain the conclusion, which is a universal quantification. The more particular cases that are analyzed then the stronger the argument.
Statistical Syllogism Most F are G.
α is F.
∴ α is G.
This is a probabilistic version of Universal Syllogism. The more F’s that are ascertained to be G, the stronger the argument.
Analogical Syllogism α and β are both X.
α and β are both Y.
(and so on)
α is F.
∴ β is F.
Attributes in common between α and β must not just be abundant for a strong argument, but be relevant. For example, if two individuals are the same height then one person will not be good at math just because the other is; however, a relevant criteria would be meticulousness.
Inference P.
Q best explains P.
∴ Q.
For Q to be the best explanation, it must be better than any other explanation. The size of the set of rival explanations, therefore, determines the strength of the argument. Furthermore, the best explanation at one time may not be the best at another.
Prediction

Explaining a phenomenon usually gives rise to predictions about recurrence of that phenomenon. For example, finding that retinoblastoma is explained by Rb-/- mutations allows predictions that retinoblastoma will form in Rb-/- individuals. Thus, explanations and predictions oft go in tandem. An explanation that gives rise to poor predictions is a poor explanation. A prediction that is supported by a poor explanation is not trustworthy.

Causal Inference

In causal inference, the best explanation for a phenomenon is sought by inquiring about its cause. For example, retinoblastoma researchers combed through countless genes to find a cause for retinoblastoma. After finding a mutation present in all and only retinoblastoma cases, researchers created an Rb-/- population. Its constituents invariably formed retinoblastoma. Rb mutations were causally inferred as the best explanation for retinoblastoma.


Written by      First published January 14, 2010      Last modified October 10, 2011
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